China could add 48 GW of solar next year – AECEA
The in-country analyst has revised up its expectation for this year and says a healthy unsubsidized project pipeline will keep the numbers ticking over in 2021. The spending plans necessary to ramp up renewables targets in the next five-year plan, though, could put the nation on a collision course with the EU.
Policy makers in Beijing could be set to accelerate national solar targets as part of the next five-year plan.
Image: Jack Seeds/Flickr
China will add 34-38 GW of solar generation capacity this year and 42-48 GW next year, according to analyst the Asia Europe Clean Energy (Solar) Advisory (AECEA), as officials prepare to ramp up renewables targets with president Xi Jinping's 2060 carbon-neutral pledge in mind.
The China-based analyst has revised up its expectations for this year after the National Energy Administration (NEA) last month revealed the nation had added 18.7 GW of solar to the end of September.
Trade body the China Photovoltaic Industry Association has denied a report it has revised down its expectations for the year from 35-45 GW to 35-40 GW, although the AECEA expectation ties in with the lower figure. The NEA said 10.04 GW of the new capacity came in the form of utility scale projects, with residential arrays amounting to 5.27 GW and commercial and industrial systems contributing 3.39 GW.
Five-year plan
With preparations well under way for China's next five-year plan – which the AECEA expects to be unveiled in March – the analyst has speculated three important clean energy targets could be revised. With the nation aiming for 20% of its primary energy consumption to come from renewables by 2030, and having already reached 15.3% last year, officials could add a 2025 target of 18-19%, according to the analyst.
Clean energy supplied 28% of total generation last year, and could be the subject of a new, 32% target for 2025; and non-hydro renewables, which generated 10.2% of China's electricity last year, could be set an 18.9% ambition for 2025.
The AECEA reports various institutions have been tasked with estimating how much extra solar would be required annually to hit such targets, with estimates ranging from 47-64 GW, and even as high as 81 GW per year. Such returns could see China hosting 480-560 GW of solar by 2025, or even as much as 645 GW. Beyond that point, the current China Renewable Energy Outlook envisages 119 GW of new solar per year to 2030 and 150 GW annually during 2031-35.
This news sourced from pv-magazine
